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...ikely buyer of a woolen jacket by occurrence of such an aberration in the weather pattern would be quite substantial, thereby validating an extended... ...me recent developments in non-linear time series modelling, testing and forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 8, 1992: 135-156. De ...

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... 50-54% true according to meteorologists who have investigated the past years' weather, 30 or 34-35% false according to today's very sunny and droug... ...Consider the simple frame of discernment unny ainy about the true nature of the weather at a given location for the next day and let consider two inde... ...and let consider two independent bodies of evidence and providing the following weather forecasts at Applying Dempster’s rule of combination yields th... ...h theory, MIT press, Cambridge, MA. [3] Alexander, C. (1997), Estimating and forecasting volatility and correlation: methods and applications, in ... ... Application in Financial Fraud Detection”; Advances in Financial Planning and Forecasting (forthcoming). [7] Raimi, Ralph A., “The First Digit Pr...

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...haviour that we should expect from the FCM. This is important because the forecasting process of the FCMs requires the study of the dynamical behavi... ...riving on a California freeway. The concepts, or the FCM’s nodes, are bad weather, freeway congestion, auto accidents, patrol frequency, and own ris... ...s FCM with a spreadsheet to see how it ran. Kosko defines the concept bad weather to be the only system input, although all other concepts necessari... ...WAYS + SOME – VERY MUCH – AUTO ACCIDENTS FREEWAY CONGESTION BAD WEATHER OWN RISK AVERSION OWN DRIVING SPEED PATROL FREQUENCY FIGURE... ... as fuzzy values, represented with membership functions. SCHEDULE BAD WEATHER AUTO ACCIDENTS PATROL FREQUENCY OWN RISK AVERSION OWN DRIVI... ... 54% true according to meteorologists who have investigated the past years weather, 30 or 34-35% false according to today’s very sunny and droughty s...

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...se of foreboding grew. He yanked up the collar of his oilskin, hoping the raw weather accounted for his unusual edginess. A red-coated man with jowly... ...performed poorly in four starts on a sunny day, but maybe he’d like the shitty weather. Lazer really couldn't run much worse. Kurt hated to give up o... ...nly a stoic escort pony kept him in line. It was obvious the horse hated the weather, hated the track, hated to race. The phone in Kurt’s pocket vi... ...ur his priority was coffee. The distinct smell of frying bacon drew him to a weather-beaten building close to the oval. A bulletin board by the ent... ...r the rail. Supposed to be nice for the next half hour. If you don't like the weather, just wait ten minutes.” Kurt smiled and glanced out the windo... ... Streaks of red bruised the eastern ridge when Kurt rushed into the barn. Forecasting this high-altitude weather was a skill he hadn't yet maste...

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...s none of tliH pitching s([Uiid were in regu- lar form because of the cold weather. The fielding, esjiecially tliut of the inhcld, was good, even bril... ...ich- tenhein, Woodfin '09, Abbott, Dunning and Jackson '10. As soon as the weather permits, the Taconic golf course will be put in shape. Although the... ...incoaiplelenesi) of outdoor practice due to the quix- otic behavior of the weather. An increase in candidates will mean an iiiorease in the chances of... ... of unusually low scholarship standards. Tlie class did not sue- oessfully weather the critical period of its spring career. We would prefer to believ... ...e scholar- ship disqualitioations have liandi- cajiped the squad, the cold weather has retarded the development of material more than anything else. C... ... with the exception of one oloud form such observations are of no value in forecasting. Christmas Lit. Contents The Dpoember number of the Lit., which... ...teorology Prof. Mil- ham will conduct special classes in,practical work in forecasting. Tlia olasB has been divided into small divisions, each of whic... ...ar monthly meeting of the faculty tonight; a course in prac- tical weather forecasting, by Prof. Milham; and a course in the French literature of the ...

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...Forecast of Things after the War By H.G. WELLS 1916 1916 1916 1916 1916 I. FORECASTING I. FORECASTING I. FORECASTING I. FORECASTING I. FORECASTING THE... ...sying is almost a habit of mind. Science is very largely analysis aimed at forecasting. The test of any scientific law is our verification of its anti... ...ist that here is a stage set for a drama that perpetually begins. Now this forecasting disposition has led the writer not only to publish a book of de... ...low the peace. So I spread out the considerations that I think justify our forecasting, in a very changed Great Britain and a changed Europe, firstly,... ... a woman’s disposi- tion, from beauty enthroned for love towards the tall, weather- hardened woman with a spear, loving her mate as her mate loves her...

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...e her about it,” he recommended, his eyes travel- ling on in search of the weather report. He had turned to the wrong page; and suddenly a line of bla... ...some growth on a vital organ; and he now felt himself at once incapable of forecasting her judgment and powerless to evade its effects. To escape, the...

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...od sits to feel the afternoon sun, I see it all; for, except Schlosskirche weather-cock, no bi- ped stands so high. Couriers arrive bestrapped and beb... ..., perhaps sufficiently distinguished in society by this fact, that, in dry weather or in wet, “they never appear without their umbrella.” Had we not k... ... who shall speak? Neither in love of grace is comfort forgotten. In winter weather you behold the whole fair creation (that can afford it) in long man... ...naked Trooper introduces his head and neck; and so rides shielded from all weather, and in battle from many strokes (for he rolls it about his left ar... ...s had the Bill to dis- charge. But the whole particulars of his Route, his Weather- observations, the picturesque Sketches he took, though all regular... ...f Summer herself. How came it that the Wanderer advanced thither with such forecasting heart (ahndungsvoll), by the side of his gay host? Did he feel ...

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...rief conversation wit this individual. He was a lad in the early twenties, weather- bit and with bloodshot eyes. He was, he told me, a miner. I asked ... ...!” “That must have been the Seminaire,” said someone. As one speaks of the weather or a passing cart. “It was in the Rue de la Bueire, M’sieur,” the l... ... of the British than of the French aviators because of the vileness of the weather when I visited the latter. It is quite impossible for me to institu... ...d crawl under wires. Then you wonder what the trench is like in really wet weather. You hear a shell burst at no great distance. You pass two pages of... ...asked very frequently to guess how long the war has still to run. All such forecasting is the very wildest of shooting. There are the chances of war t...

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...lar mind, and as accurate a calculator in estimating political chances and forecasting results, as could be found among the party managers in Illinois... ...ave escaped serious controversy as to details of policy; but he could have weathered it far better than any other statesman of his time, for his prest... ...sion of it. In the war there was no place for holiday magistrate, nor fair-weather sailor. The new pilot was hur- ried to the helm in a tornado. In fo... ...t to permit of its contracting into wrinkles,— but from her want of teeth, weather-beaten appearance in general, and from a kind of notion that ran in... ...at the time his wife died. The first special cause is your exposure to bad weather on your journey, which my experience clearly proves to be very seve... ...The season of the year will be most favorable for good roads, and pleasant weather; and although we cannot but believe you would be highly gratified w...

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... went on! Presently he turned to me and said, just as one might speak of the weather, or any other common matter — “You know about transmigration of s... ...heard of it. He was so little interested — just as when people speak of the weather — that he did not notice whether I made him any answer or not. Th... ...d for three weeks; things always happen so. I kept secluded, and watched the weather. Clarence dropped in from time to time and said the public excite... ...anted to banish him, but I interfered. I said he would be useful to work the weather, and attend to small matters like that, and I would give him a l... ...e along, one annoying fact was borne in upon my understanding — that we were weather bound. An armed novice cannot mount his horse without help and ... ... why she hadn’t, the thing had never come up in her mind. So here she was, forecasting the veritable history of future prisoners of the Castle d’If...

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...odging comes with silent pace. Whom broad awake she finds, in troublous fit, Forecasting, how his foe he might annoy, And him amoues with speaches see... ...urneyes end: There eke my feeble barke a while may stay, Till merry wind and weather call her thence away. Scarsely had Phoebus in the glooming East Y...

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... sun of midsummer, at midday, was showering down torrents of splendor. The weather was dry, the sky was cloudless, the blue depths seemed the express ... ... “On Whitsunday.”—It is singular, and perhaps owing to the temperature and weather likely to prevail in that early part of summer, that more appearanc... ...e, as it were, to the glo- rification of his own shrine. With our help, he weathered the storm of homage silently ascending. And we, in fact, whilst s... ...lence in the attendants, as from faulty arrangements and to- tal defect of forecasting. The pace was such as the roads of that day allowed; never so m... ...tracts of two or three miles in succession,) nor was it an accident of the weather. In all sea- sons the same demand was enforced, as my female protec... ...y landed, as well as of provisions, be- cause sometimes a sudden change of weather, or the sudden appearance of a suspicious sail, might draw the ship...

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... world. He was not given, as a general thing, to antici- pating danger, or forecasting disaster, and he had had no social tremors on this particular o... ...bber shoes which they put on when they go to play in the Tuileries in damp weather,” said the young marquise. “I wonder whether your brother-in-law ma... ...rred within him a dull vivacity of contemplation. It is on record that the weather, at that moment, was of the finest English quality; he took long wa... ...tion of the Rue d’Enfer. The day had the softness of early spring; but the weather was gray and humid. Newman found himself in a part of Paris which h...

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...y stages in a prolonged campaign. Although he was still under thirty, this forecasting habit had marked two semicircular lines above his eyebrows, whi... ...ained how Mrs. Seal fed on a bag of biscuits under the trees, whatever the weather might be, rather, Katharine thought, as though Mrs. Seal were a pet... ... to be a fine day.” At this moment, just as Mrs. Hilbery was examining the weather from the window, there was a knock at the door. 100 Night and Day ... ...jaunt to Blackfriars to inspect the site of Shakespeare’s theater, for the weather was hardly settled enough for the country. To this proposal Mrs. Mi... ...chins, so much resembling the profile of a cockatoo, had been bared to the weather; she was, indeed, a single lady; but she had, 103 Virginia Woolf i... ...text. But Sunday approached. The day is usually dedi- cated to Nature. The weather was almost kindly enough for an expedition. But Cassandra rejected ...

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...t secure refuge to his friends, from their misfortunes at home. Having bad weather in his journey, and traveling through mountainous countries, and th... ...few vessels, being kept from putting further out to sea by the fury of the weather, and from landing by the power of his enemies, was tossed about pai... ... along with them from the sea, but more usually bring days of moist bright weather, cooling and gently fertilizing the soil, so that the firm belief p... ...ger and thirst, and live exposed like them to 16 V olume Two the wind and weather, without fire or covering. Besides, being now in years, and having ... ...hundred and thirty talents of silver toward the charge of the war. But the weather being tempestuous, his ships kept in shore, and passing along the c... ...uarded Caius, were quiet and diligent, relieving one another by turns, and forecasting, as in a public calamity, what the issue of things might be. As...

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...ift and sure strides her genius and judgment developed and expanded in the forecasting and handling of the securities of both the material and spiritu... ...had it he took no trouble to exercise it. He carried his soul’s prevailing weather in his face, and when he en tered a room the parasols or the umbre... ...nation which lets one Had go hadding in any kind of indefinite grammatical weather but restricts the other one to definite and datable meteoric con ... ...o not go out in the fog myself. This new creature does. It goes out in all weathers, and stumps right in with its muddy feet. And talks. It used to be...

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...hood sits to feel the afternoon sun, I see it all; for, except Schlosskirche weather cock, no biped stands so high. Couriers arrive bestrapped and beb... ...als, perhaps sufficiently distinguished in society by this fact, that, in dry weather or in wet, “they never appear without their umbrella.” Had we not... ...ar who shall speak? Neither in love of grace is comfort forgotten. In winter weather you behold the whole fair creation (that can afford it) in long m... ...r naked Trooper introduces his head and neck; and so rides shielded from all weather, and in battle from many strokes (for he rolls it about his left ... ..., has had the Bill to discharge. But the whole particulars of his Route, his Weather observations, the picturesque PROSPECTIVE 51 Sketches he took, t... ... of Summer herself. How came it that the Wanderer advanced thither with such forecasting heart (ahndungsvoll), by the side of his gay host? Did he fee...

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... to epidemic fever in two or three streets, which I don’t like in this hot weather, and I had rather have my mind easy about the young ones.” “And wha... ...new and terrible disaster. He was a large, tall man, with a good-humoured, weather-beaten face, and an unwieldy, gouty figure; and he stood, with his ... ... under the attraction of the place, taking the duty for a few Sundays. The weather was very sultry, forbidding exertion on the part of all save cricke... ...ver. The gravelled roads of Belforest were never impassable, even in moist weather; and even the penetralia of the place had been laid open to the Bro... ...stretched hands, and—”I never thought you were a connection;” the fine old weather-beaten face was strangely moved, as the rug- ged hand took hers, an... ... relationship. Partly she judged by herself. She was never in the habit of forecasting, and for so clever and spirited a woman, she thought wonderfull...

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...rate. He cannot, to be sure, by his present reac- tions affect to-morrow’s weather, but he may take some steps which will influence future happenings,... ...eption of a world in which knowl- edge of its past would not be helpful in forecasting and giving meaning to its future. We ignore the prospective ref...